Good Morning Racefans. A Post Filled with Bad/Good Opinion on What the Hell Happened in Racing This Weekend

Good morning everyone. I hope the day is treating you well. 

So much happened this weekend, and much of it stuck in my craw (or in my amazement) in various ways. So I decided to take a few moments and jot a few things (and some rants) down. 

The Adios was won by what will now be referred to as the horse who crossed the wire first in the Meadowlands Pace, Prince Hal Hanover, and it was a pretty decent tilt. I thought at least. DeRosa reports the handle was quite good, with the race being televised for the first time. 

Credit where due: total handle on Adios card up about 16%-17%. Considering @TheNYRA Saratoga was down 9.9%, that’s not bad! https://t.co/lPSzEeRwkN

— Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) July 27, 2025

Adios day is a great day; throwback in many ways, and it's nice to see them have a good result. 

The Meadowlands held the Hambo and Hambo Oaks eliminations, and I wondered if i) horses were replaced with other horses, and ii) if some drivers didn't make it back from the Adios and the amateurs took their place, unbeknownst to us bettors. 

Pre-race Oaks chalk Lady Landia went to the back and missed the final at 2-5. 

Ake is the best. He drives his 3/5 shots like they are 25/1 and he drove Nordic Catcher like a rocket ship with blah PP’s

— Buck Swope (@ShotTakingTime) July 27, 2025

Pre-race Hambo chalk Go Dog Go raced like well, Stop Cat Stop. 

I have a theory on this, actually, which may or may not be true. When Dog beat Maryland easily last time and looked like the second coming of Muscle Hill, he veered a hard left in the lane. I wonder if he tweaked something. He raced like something was bothering him, and driver Todd McCarthy drove him like he'd be no good. Who knows, but it was quite disappointing.

Kevin Oscarrson drove the Lady Landia race like he was 2-5, wanting to pull two holes at 70-1, and various other moves. Prediction - I'm pretty sure he's gonna do something wild in the final. 

Aside - I don't know what to say about Scott Zeron and R Lady W, but I swear I'm gonna be so broke betting this horse until she's 12, or until they list Gingras. 

I'll switch my Hambo pick to Miss Belmar and hope she's not chalk. I have no idea what to do in the Hambo, but I assume Maryland will be my most likely winner, barring a bad post.

In the Jim Dandy, Sovereignty proved without a doubt (in my mind anyway) that he is a tremendous racehorse. It seems like years ago he was a fade because he could only be a closer. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if they're pointing him to the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. 

I wish it was 1990 again and we'd see him race throughout his 4 year old season. He just keeps getting better and better, in my view. 

Speaking of 1990. Communism is in the news, particularly with Gen Z types who don't know which side of the city people ran to when the wall came down. The old Stalinist saying "show me the man and I'll show you the crime" I believe works with the harness judges, too. Namely, the longer you look for an infraction, the higher the chance you'll find one. However, what happens when they don't even look?

In the WEG Open last night Taurasi definitely ran over or went inside pylons. How do you not tell the public you're looking at it. The official sign went up, nothing burger. This sport can have 20 minute inquiries or no inquiry. It seems there is no in between. 

I get it, it sucks, but I wish the industry types would stop doing this:

We have a clubhouse leader for most significant late odds change on a winner at Del Mar. As the field for Saturday's 6th was loading, Nanci Griffith was 19-1. Her final price was 6-1. She rallied wide and won. Folks who hoped for approx. $40 on a $2 win ticket, got $14.80. #drf

— Steve Andersen (@DRFAndersen) July 26, 2025

The horse was always 6-1. She just wasn't six to one when the tote board was made up of gobbledygook.  

Back in 1904, Tony the Nose hung the Giants by 4 over the Eagles in the Bronx, and Pete the Leg hung Eagles - 4 at a barber shop in Philly. The price was phantom, and Tony Zhou/Keith Bush/Rob Pizzola syndicates mowed into town and banged the price into shape. 

This happens every race in racing. The tote board is a barber shop. These prices are not real. You're making people dumber.

Speaking of dumb, I was not playing seriously during the day yesterday - a few supers, ex's, reverse pyramid things for 20 cents etc, and I looked up and had a super day. I cashed 68 out of like 200 wagers, which for my style of play is like running the table. I texted a friend before the harness races this info, and then went 11 for my next 200. Never tempt the gambling gods. 

Last up - to the content makers in this sport - Scott, Sport of Kings guys, picks platforms etc, I commend you. I listen to what I can and it amazes me this is all free. I can't believe this sport isn't more popular.

Have a great rest of the day everyone. 

Is the "Intent" Handicapping Variable What's Driving Up Chalk Win Rates?

Handicapping horse racing would be pretty easy if the fastest horse won every race, but betting what horse is the fastest in this race, on this day, is our main goal. 

To find that horse we can use intent handicapping factors, and they can include basics like a rider or driver change, a drop in class, or an addition of lasix. 

Finding hidden intent factors - that is, things that aren't in the PP's - can be a holy grail for us. Long ago, bike changes in harness racing was one that could particularly yield fruit. 

Also in yesteryear, there would be information outside the form that we'd get while at the track. 

I, and I'm sure many of you, would hear that a horse was ready. The trainer got some vet work done, and the hock that was bugging him was on tip top shape. The horse in training blew away a top horse in the barn on Wednesday afternoon. 

Oftentimes we'd hear this and look up and the horse we figured was 10-1 was 7 or 8-1. It would close at 6 and win going away to pay $14. Many times you'd squeeze an exotic bet in that would pay, because every pool wasn't covered. 

These horses of course exist today just like they always have. But while I'd get this information at ten minutes to post, run over to a friend and whisper what I heard, dissemination is much, much different. 

In fact, these tidbits could've been texted 500 times over the previous two days. 

The horse that was 10-1 is not 6-1, but likely opens at 9-5. It may be chalk or second choice in the pick 3. And, in 2025, when the CAW live play algos catch this, they factor it in as well, driving down the price only as they can when you pay 5% win juice. 

One simple bit of "hidden" intent information in 2025, with cellphones, being able to easily bet multiple bets (exotics and otherwise) on your ADW, and in the age of so little public money in the pools, snowballs into a whole lot of hammered horses. #theyknew horses were #theyknews because #theyknew. 

It doesn't mean these horses always win; just like 25 years ago they didn't either. But I'd argue with some of these horses, it has become as obvious an intent factor in the pools as a driver change in 1994. 

There's a lot of reason for the sharper lines we see today and surely the computer wagering is a big part. But hidden intent factors that aren't as hidden in the modern game in my view are pouring a lot of gasoline on that fire. 

Have a nice Tuesday everyone. 

Three Things Harness Racing Judges Can Learn from the Thoroughbreds

Judging in horse racing is subjective, imperfect, maddening, and many times an unenviable task. But it's a big part of this sport and I think, like with other sports, it should evolve and continually try to improve. 

In many ways I believe judging in the thoroughbreds has improved over time; they've added some logic, reason and guardrails to the imperfect. It's not perfect, but I believe it's getting better. 

Typing that I believe the thoroughbred stews aren't too bad at their jobs might get me blocked and reported on the twitter, but yes. I believe there are several things our harness racing judges can learn from them. I'll list a few here. 

Tic Tacs

Thoroughbred judging deals with an immutable truth about this sport we all play or participate in - with thousand pound animals going full speed around two turns in big fields, stuff is going to happen. 

There's variance, there's path adjustments and bumping and all the rest. It's just the way it is. And unless something is egregious, the horse is staying up. 

Nowhere is this more apparent than the start. The start is a particularly violent event, where fractious horses, ready to go at top speed immediately can hammer the hell out of each other. 99.9% of starts aren't even looked at because they're a part of the game. 

Harness racing could not be judged more in the exact opposite way. Every horse is expected to have wide berths. Every driver and horse are expected to keep perfect straight line paths. 

If a horse breaks in front of another horse and a driver pulls a horses head sideways costing him a foot, bye bye to the breaking horse, even if he wins by 25 and the offended horse loses by 50. A horse simply making another horse veer off a straight line course is considered a violation. 

Harness racing, because of race bikes and the threat of accident surely should be called closer than thir runner cousins. But, it's bonkers just how close the game is called. The judges leave nothing to be desired when it comes to the vagaries of the game. 

Angles are Imperfect, Hence it Better be Clear

In thoroughbred racing they are loathe to throw out a winner unless the evidence a foul occurred is pretty overwhelming. One of the reasons for this is the available angles on replay. 

Just like in hockey replay (before the camera was placed directly on the goal line, it was pretty impossible to tell if a puck crossed the goal line), in racing we're dealing with a pan shot that might be at a 15 or 40 degree angle to an infraction, and the head on doesn't show depth.  

Was the hole there? Did this horse crowd another? Unless you have a drone shot directly over an infraction, you might never know for sure. In harness racing, judges seem to happily guess, and then revert to the tic tac point above. 

Thoroughbred Stews let the Jocks Jock

Racing is (or should be) a tactical game, and it's ruthless. 

When Fierceness had the rail recently at Saratoga everyone thought he'd have trouble being pinned in. Right on cue (the jocks read Marcus Hersh or read Tinky posts) not one but two jocks race-rode him into the rail. They knew they had a job to do to win that race, and they also knew they weren't getting pitched for a tic tac for a tactical ride. 

Jocks show a lane, then close it. They drift to show a horse an oncoming one. They're allowed to, well, be jockeys with a functioning brain. The best at it get paid millions. 

In harness racing if a driver briefly and tactically shows a hole and the following driver is dumb enough to try and take it and it gets shut, you're likely tossed. If he (rare at Mohawk that's for sure) swings three high early because they're walking and a horse behind him tosses his head, (because that horse's driver doesn't have a clock in his head) it's a tic tac toss. 

In thoroughbred racing, riding brilliance is respected, in harness racing, driving brilliance can get you suspended. 

I remember a bunch of years ago now it was Breeders Cup Saturday and I bet a horse in a turf race where (it mighta been Goldikova) the rider forced his way out, because a horse beside her was dying and wouldn't get out of the way. The judges didn't even look at it. 

Later that evening I made a bet at the Meadowlands on a horse that I thought was super-talented but completely wonky. He was being driven for the first time by Yannick Gingras, who even then showed no fear with such horses. The horse was 5-2 and Yannick set sail. Leading at the half by six he went offstride and immediately pulled right. The driver of the horse six back in second, veered out, not because he had to, but because he got scared. 

Yannick, with the driving brilliance we see nightly with him now, got back on stride, swooped the field and won by five in a completely remarkable performance. 

The Meadowlands judges tossed him, because of the actions of the driver six lengths behind him who got scared. 

Harness racing and thoroughbred racing has to be judged differently. But to me anyway, the gap is too large. And harness racing has to move more towards the thoroughbreds, not the other way around. 

Have a great Monday everyone