Yes, Chess Has CAW's and its Share of Cheaters, but They're Handled Much Differently

Chess is a fantastic, old, heady game that has stood the test of time. 

But, one thing some might not know, is that they've worked pretty hard to ensure this immutably true statement hasn't been sabotaged. 

Magnus Carlsen, the world number one in chess, was asked by Joe Rogan on his podcast recently about computer engines. Carlson replied, "Elon Musk tweeted out that my iPhone can beat Magnus Carlsen at chess, and he's correct". 

In 2025, humans are not the best chess players, computers are. 

Chess engines like Swordfish - alogs that suggest moves that are perfect play - are prevalent and easy to use; so easy that one can use it while playing chess online. 

Sensing a threat to the game, chess took an interesting approach. 

When something statistically looked out of whack with a player, not only did the top players mention it, the organizations in charge of the game acted swiftly. Players were under scrutiny immediately, their old games were analyzed for wrong doing, and security at live games was enhanced. Some players with obvious cheating based on these engines and analysis were banned. 

The engines - the black box to win, the algo for perfect play, the holy grail of chess - that could beat Bobby Fischer, Gary Kasparov or Magnus Carlson, was completely eliminated from the game. And the people that would use it to hinder the game were also sent to pasture. And and all permission structure regarding them didn't exist. 

Meanwhile, in horse racing - and I realize this is news to no one - this has been handled much differently. Or maybe more apt, has never been handled at all. 

Back in 2007 or so, trainers that had 8% or 9% win percentages for years - the proverbial "couldn't teach a poodle to piss" types - suddenly starting winning at 20% 30% or 40%. Horses in harness racing were dropping four or five seconds in a two or three weeks when entering these barns. 

These statistical anomalies that were noted and acted on swiftly in chess using logic and reason, were mostly excused, and when one brought them up, you were called "jealous" or other pejoratives. What probably made it most maddening, was that the industry itself would have these trainers on the cover of the trades, and give them year end awards. They created a permission structure, didn't eliminate one. 

Only later of course did we learn of the presence of EPO and it's other name Aranesp. Some trainers were nabbed, but in my view if we caught 10% of them it would be surprising. Some in the industry still cling to the fairy tale that for those who weren't caught they magically improved virtually every horse that entered their barns with shoeing changes or some other such nonsense. 

The game has suffered because of this. When you can't compete you either cheat, or leave the game. Foal crops and horse ownership; the number of trainers competing, etc, have all fallen, while slots and purse money have still flourished. 

Meanwhile, this same braintrust has done almost exactly the same with another element of the game, the CAWs. CAW's created and developed a "Swordfish" for racing, and they are allowed to use it, which is fine. No one is saying smart people can't win. 

But instead of leaving it at that (and this is what angers most, in my opinion), they not only create a permission structure, they pour gasoline on it, by giving them obscene pricing that the rest of us have no hope of getting. 

Think about it for a second. It's like chess inviting me to play a regular player where I can use an iPhone to beat him while he can't, they charge me $1 to play the game and him $20. How long would that sport last?

Chess is a healthy game despite technology and cheating readily available to it, but it's that way because they took it seriously as a threat to the game. They don't allow someone to beat Magnus Carlsen for a World Championship cheating with an algo, and then put that person on the front page of their marketing materials. They don't allow one group with an edge to get more of an edge and more of an edge, chasing away new and old customers, leaving computers to play themselves. 

Racing did that. It did it to themselves. And in 2025, they continue to do what they've always done when pressed with a threat - ignoring it and hoping it goes away. 

Have a nice Tuesday everyone. 

Racing's Weekend of 'Disruption'

Hello everyone. That was a really quiet holiday weekend, wasn't it?

All that happened, by my count, was a horse race occurred where one of the leading jocks in the nation almost met his maker, a horse worth many millions was running loose around a track, and owner and defacto Horse Racing Commissioner Mike Repole went on video tirades on twitter. He also hammered Andy Serling who blocked him (ok, maybe this isn't too out-of-the ordinary). 

In my slice of the world, y'all were big time banging on the twitter pretty hard on this. I got flamed almost 3% as much as Jessica Paquette does, Zocalli was firing guns as the President of the God Bless Rabbits Committee. Thank goodness Beem's communist captors kept him shielded from all this. 

The thing that confuses me most about the reaction to this race was, in some quarters, the "surprise" it happened. 

Rabbits have been entered since bloodletting times in blue blood events with one sole purpose - to disrupt a horse race. 

When disruption happened in the JCGC, it's a natural and logical progression. It should be nothing to be surprised about. 

We can't challenge Mike Tyson to a fight and be dumbfounded that our jaw is broken. 

The broader question, I think, is why this phenomenon even exists. 

I've seen the whole "Frankel had a rabbit" thing referenced, but why did he have one? Would the world stop spinning if he didn't have enough pace to chase and he ran second? No. Would we as bettors be inconvenienced by him running third? Certainly not, we deal with analyzing pace in races 50,000 times a year and bet accordingly. 

As I see it, rabbits are entered particularly so blue blood pedigrees, owned by many people who make more money by noon than I will in my lifetime, can maximize the value of their bloodstock by earning black type. 

I don't think there's anything more to it. 

Rabbits aren't entered in February at Laurel; the trainers don't have enough money to enter another entry to kill off the lone speed and set it up for their closer. It won't happen at Mountaineer tonight either. In fact, if it did happen at Mountaineer tonight, the trainer of the aggrieved party might meet the other trainer behind the barn for a talking to, and it would never happen again. 

Even Sherrifs with Zenyatta didn't enter a rabbit in the Clement Hersh, where they went 3/4's in like 1:17 in a eight and a half furlong race to try and beat her. So what, if she loses she loses. That's horse racing. 

No, this is a part of the one tenth of one tenth of one tenth percent of horse racing; it's their world not ours. 

Until this tiny group gets together and wants to end it by putting restrictions on entries, horses who don't belong in a race will be there to disrupt the race. And in some cases, like on Sunday, they will succeed. 

We can be happy the disruption didn't reach its zenith because that would've been tragic, but when you inject chaos into a race artificially, things can turn bad in a hurry. 

Have a great Tuesday everyone. 

Optix - A Useful Tool to Battle the Sharps

I'm always looking for new ideas or mediums to learn in the game (in that evergreen quest to get better) and I'd been meaning to dive into Optix for some time. I finally bit the bullet over the last week, signed up, and took it for a test drive. 

For me, whether it be for DFS software, or a football handicapping medium, or for horse racing, I want a package to do a few things - i) save me time, ii) be easy enough to use and understand and iii) give me something I won't get in the PP's. I think Optix delivered on all three counts. 

"The Plot" 

Represented by squares and circles, the visual plot represents a neat way to look at the horses based on their running styles and early and late pace figures. It takes a bit to get your head around, but once you do, it can help confirm or deny what you're seeing in the PP's, and I found it to be remarkably accurate. 

Using this in tandem this week it helped me solidify a lean, or opened my eyes to using a horse who would have a favorable set up that I might've not uncovered. It worked well with another package I use. 

In fact, I was ambivalent on a longshot at Colonial that my own research found, but when I was able to see the Optix plot it gave me confidence that I should play the horse. The race played out as the plot detailed, and the horse paid $50 or $60. That was a nice bet. 

Notes

I found the notes feature incredibly useful. There are a lot of races to watch, and replay watching is time consuming. The notes alerted me to races where I may want to look at a replay, or encouraged me to look closer at a running line. It'd take me all day otherwise, and I don't have all day. This is one of the better features I've seen in any sellers' package. They definitely do the work.

The races are also (at several tracks) rated with a grade. I also found this helpful. 

Did this horse who ran eight points slower do so because of raceflow or kickback or a bad trip? There's no need to guess - the notes right beside the horse tell you.

The Horses, and the Data

Optix is not all circles and squares, but a past performance where you can drill down to look at any horse. Their figures, running lines, are all there. It's not hard to get used to and I didn't have to bring up the PP's to confirm or deny anything, really. Reading the lines and other pertinent information is sleek and easy. 

"The Green Report"

This report summarizes trip notes that can portend a good effort. 

Just on Sunday I knew I didn't love Fort Nelson in the 6th at the Spa, and lo and behold, the green report showed a possible bet back on the Bauer horse. I quickly checked out the horse, and thought the 9-2 looked pretty juicy for a possible live bet against a horse I wanted to throw out. He won going away. 

This saves you a lot of time. No, the green report horses aren't locks, but they are possibles. And because some of them are sneaky, they aren't hammered by a CAW 100% of the time. 

The Odds Line Interface

If you're handicapping live, the interface pipes in live odds, and shows you daily double odds. If you wonder if the 20-1 shot you like is going down to 6-1, chances are you'll know. 

In addition, and to me this is a tremendous service to players who don't make odds lines, you can contender rate your horses and the interface will make an odds line for you. You can compare that odds line to the board, double check if you missed anything, and fire away. I think this would be fantastic for, for example, a Breeders Cup card. 

Misc

The above just scratches the surface. There are many other reports, including a hot pace or slow pace report, which is kind of cool. You can sort or search the reports for races you may be interested in. There's a lot here I need to still look into. 

Summary

Sometimes I think there's a misconception that these packages, whether they be HTR or jcapper or Optix, that they will flag horses that simply win. That's of course not the way they work. We have to put in the work and make the decisions. 

But I am of the opinion this package is worth looking into. In fact, for a sports bettor or new player, I would not tell them to read 100 books or download the PP's, I'd probably point them to something like this. I think it would give them a fighting chance. The package uncovers enough nuggets of info that aren't overly public, and everything is linked, so if you're a numbers person that likes to visualize how a race may go, you can weave an opinion. 

I'll go off on a tangent a little now.... this business bothers me. 

Optix is a good package (and there are others), but what's their market? It's the $25k a year player that wants to be a $125k a year player. It's the $125k a year player that wants to be a million dollar a year player. What has the business done to this market? They've destroyed it. The CAW's feast off it, and a barrier to entry is 15% rebates to CAW's, while if you live in a "bad" state, you're screwed and getting nothing back. 

This is a great game, but the pricing and the way it's structured with short-sighted alphabet entities and horsepeople groups does it no favors. A strong ecosystem helps resellers like Optix. It helps third party promoters. And that in turn helps the business.

I wish the sport realized this long ago. It would help just about everyone, and the business might have fifty Optixs to choose from, because the demand would be there.

So, those are my thoughts. And a quick note - I know John a wee bit, and Chris Larmey I think mentioned on the twitter box he does a little work with Optix, but they didn't give me a free look or anything to write a post. I paid my $50 for the week.

Have a great Sunday evening and Monday everyone!